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Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 12?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 12?

Volume:
$59,521

29°C

 - Polymarket

29°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

29°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$11,328
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,242
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,816
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,990
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,137
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,543
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$510
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$440
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Tokyo July temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether the highest temperature in Tokyo will reach a specific threshold on July 12. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and $59,521 in total volume across all traders participating in this market. You can monitor how sentiment shifts as new weather forecasts emerge and the event date approaches, giving you a live view of collective prediction strength around Tokyo's peak summer heat.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, model uncertainty, and their own risk assessments into prices. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals, this market aggregates the beliefs of many participants into a single probability. Comparing the current odds to published forecasts from Japan's Meteorological Agency or international weather services can reveal whether traders are pricing in more or less risk than official models suggest, offering insight into market-specific sentiment about July 12's conditions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time probabilities. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing "yes" and "no" outcomes, and the ratio of shares outstanding determines the odds you see displayed. Higher trading volume typically narrows the spread between bid and ask prices, making it cheaper to enter or exit a position. The market price reflects the collective confidence of all participants at any given moment.

This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once July 12 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Tokyo is confirmed. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources reporting the official daily maximum temperature. Once the data is finalized and available, the market will settle automatically, paying out traders who correctly predicted whether the threshold was met. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time.

Major weather model updates, tropical storm systems, or heat wave warnings from Japan's Meteorological Agency could significantly shift odds in this market. Changes in atmospheric pressure patterns, ocean temperatures, or seasonal climate anomalies may also influence trader positioning. Media coverage of extreme heat events in the region, historical temperature records being approached, or shifts in long-range forecasts can trigger rapid repricing. Real-time weather radar data and hourly forecasts closer to July 12 will likely drive the most volatile trading activity.