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Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 11?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 11?

Volume:
$57,706

30°C

 - Polymarket

30°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

30°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,629
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,603
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,293
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,325
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,245
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,991
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,253
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,686
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,603
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$816
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Tokyo July 11 temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for contracts tied to the highest temperature recorded in Tokyo on July 11. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and trading volume, allowing traders to monitor how sentiment shifts as the event date approaches. This market reflects collective predictions from participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of whether temperatures will reach specific thresholds on that day.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts and analyst estimates because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and financial incentives. While meteorologists issue probabilistic forecasts based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates the beliefs of participants willing to stake capital on outcomes. Comparing the odds here to published forecasts from Japan's Meteorological Agency or international weather services can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic scenarios than official models suggest.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on the volume and direction of trades. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature outcomes, and the platform's pricing algorithm ensures that as more capital flows toward one outcome, the odds shift accordingly. The current odds reflect the aggregate belief of all active traders; higher prices indicate stronger conviction that a particular temperature threshold will be reached.

This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Tokyo on July 11 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual recorded high temperature against the contract thresholds traders have wagered on. Resolution typically occurs within hours or days after the event, once official meteorological data is published and confirmed.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal anomalies, or updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can significantly move odds in this market. Tropical systems, heat waves, or unusual atmospheric conditions affecting Japan could trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for July 11 and real-time weather model updates released in the days leading up to the event will influence trader positioning. Breaking news about climate or regional weather events may also prompt sudden trading activity and odds adjustments.