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Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 1?

Volume:
$149,583

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,411
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,892
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,734
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,451
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Tokyo July 1 temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for contracts tied to the highest temperature recorded in Tokyo on July 1. The interface displays current market prices, 24-hour volume of $103,093, and historical price movements so traders can monitor how sentiment shifts as the event date approaches. This market aggregates the collective forecast of traders betting on whether temperatures will hit specific thresholds, offering a dynamic alternative to traditional weather forecasts.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide and often diverge from official meteorological forecasts. While weather agencies rely on atmospheric models and historical data, this market incorporates trader conviction and risk appetite, sometimes pricing in tail risks or consensus shifts faster than traditional forecasts update. Comparing the implied probability here to Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks can reveal where the crowd expects surprises. Both sources have merit: analysts provide rigorous modeling, while markets capture distributed information and incentivized judgment.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, once July 1 has passed and the highest temperature for that day in Tokyo can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources reporting the official daily maximum temperature. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time once data is finalized and published.

Major weather pattern shifts—such as a tropical system approaching Japan, a heat dome forming over East Asia, or unexpected atmospheric blocking—could significantly reprrice this market. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies, El Niño or La Niña developments, and historical temperature anomalies for early July all influence trader positioning. As the event date nears, real-time weather model updates and short-range forecasts become the primary drivers. Unusual trading volume spikes may also signal new information or large institutional positioning.