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Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 9?
polymarket
kalshi

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 9?

Volume:
$115,917

74° or below

 - Kalshi

74° or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 12:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

74° or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35,930
N/A
N/A
$29,173
Settled
Yes
polymarket

31°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,690
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

75° to 76°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,549
N/A
N/A
$21,011
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,084
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,419
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

77° to 78°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,850
N/A
N/A
$3,310
Settled
No
kalshi

81° to 82°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,847
N/A
N/A
$3,245
Settled
No
kalshi

83° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,074
N/A
N/A
$3,057
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,942
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,627
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,022
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

79° to 80°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,012
N/A
N/A
$1,973
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,780
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,575
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks the highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 9, 2026. However, the two platforms use fundamentally different geographic locations and measurement standards to resolve what appears to be the same question, creating a critical mismatch.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market measures Central Park, New York on July 7, 2026 via National Weather Service, while Polymarket measures Tel Aviv at Ben Gurion Airport on July 9, 2026 via NOAA. These are different locations, different dates, and different sources. Kalshi's resolution logic guarantees Yes for all temperature ranges, making it logically unresolvable as a meaningful market.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is fundamentally broken and does not measure Tel Aviv on the correct date. Only use Polymarket for this event group. Kalshi offers no genuine No outcome and should be treated as non-functional for the stated event.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Measures highest temperature in Central Park, New York on July 07, 2026 via National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). All six resolution conditions (less than 75°, 75-76°, 77-78°, 79-80°, 81-82°, greater than 82°) resolve to Yes. No outcome is defined. This does not measure Tel Aviv or July 9.
  • Polymarket: Measures highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 9, 2026 at Ben Gurion International Airport via NOAA, reported in whole degrees Celsius. Eleven specific thresholds: 27°C or below, 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, 31°C, 32°C, 33°C, 34°C, 35°C, 36°C, and 37°C or higher. Resolution source: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 7, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature reading is divided into six distinct ranges: 74°F or below, 75–76°F, 77–78°F, 79–80°F, 81–82°F, and 83°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome that resolves to Yes if the official NWS temperature falls within that bracket. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the authoritative source for resolution; preliminary NWS data and third-party weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather should not be used as final determinants. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS reporting may involve rounding and conversion nuances that could affect interpretation of borderline readings.

Frequently asked questions

The Tel Aviv temperature market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking real-time consensus on the highest temperature expected in Tel Aviv on July 9. This market has attracted combined volume of $115,917, with $77,526 traded in the last 24 hours. By monitoring both platforms simultaneously, participants gain visibility into how different prediction communities price the same weather outcome, revealing where consensus is strongest and where divergence signals uncertainty or information asymmetry.

Prediction market prices reflect aggregated trader beliefs rather than single-point forecasts from meteorologists. While weather analysts publish deterministic high-temperature predictions, this market converts collective opinion into probability estimates. Traders incorporate satellite data, historical patterns, and real-time atmospheric models into their positions. The advantage of prediction markets is that they continuously update as new information arrives, whereas traditional forecasts may be published once daily. This dynamic repricing often reveals nuances that static analyst predictions miss.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct market-making rules, liquidity pools, and user demographics. Kalshi and Polymarket may attract traders with different risk tolerances, time horizons, and access to weather data. Liquidity concentration also varies; if one platform has deeper order books, prices may move more slowly there in response to large trades. Additionally, platform-specific fees and settlement mechanics can create arbitrage opportunities that keep prices partially decoupled. Monitoring both venues helps traders identify mispricings and understand where conviction is highest.

Weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric pressure changes can all shift trader positions significantly. Major weather systems moving toward the Levant region, changes in solar intensity, or unexpected heat waves would trigger repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for July 9 in prior years often anchor trader expectations. As the event date approaches, intraday weather updates and satellite imagery become more influential. Traders also monitor broader climate indices and regional heat anomalies that correlate with summer temperatures in the Mediterranean.