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Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 11?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 11?

Volume:
$233,474

84° or above

 - Kalshi

84° or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 12:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

84° or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$73,036
N/A
N/A
$32,213
Settled
Yes
polymarket

32°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,760
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

82° to 83°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50,643
N/A
N/A
$34,445
Settled
No
kalshi

80° to 81°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$33,407
N/A
N/A
$26,747
Settled
No
kalshi

78° to 79°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,051
N/A
N/A
$13,562
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,905
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

76° to 77°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,647
N/A
N/A
$11,358
Settled
No
kalshi

75° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,444
N/A
N/A
$7,165
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,639
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,083
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,996
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,039
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$899
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$707
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in Tel Aviv on July 11, 2026. Polymarket offers a series of specific temperature thresholds in Celsius (28°C or below through 38°C or higher), while Kalshi's resolution criteria reference Central Park, New York temperatures on July 8, 2026—a completely different location and date. The markets are fundamentally misaligned in both geography and timing.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution criteria reference Central Park, New York on July 8, 2026, while the event group asks about Tel Aviv on July 11, 2026. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution logic resolves all possible temperature outcomes to Yes, making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket correctly targets Tel Aviv on July 11, 2026 using NOAA data from Ben Gurion Airport.Hero tip: Polymarket's market is the only resolvable version of this event. Kalshi's market contains a critical specification error affecting both the resolution location (Central Park vs. Tel Aviv), the resolution date (July 8 vs. July 11), and the logical structure (all outcomes resolve to Yes). Traders should avoid Kalshi's version until the platform corrects the specification.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolution logic measures Central Park, New York on July 08, 2026 (not Tel Aviv on July 11). All six temperature ranges (<76°, 76-77°, 78-79°, 80-81°, 82-83°, >83°) resolve to Yes, creating a logical tautology where no outcome can resolve to No. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable as specified.
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on highest temperature recorded by NOAA at Ben Gurion International Airport (Tel Aviv area) on July 11, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius. Ten outcome buckets (28°C or below through 38°C or higher) with exactly one resolving to Yes based on actual recorded temperature. Source: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on July 8, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature will resolve into one of six bands: 75°F or below, 76–77°F, 78–79°F, 80–81°F, 82–83°F, or 84°F and above. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the authoritative source for this determination. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the official final value may differ from preliminary reports or third-party weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather.