TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Highest temperature in Taipei on June 30?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Taipei on June 30?

Volume:
$145,883

35°C

 - Polymarket

35°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

35°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$14,506
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

83° or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,327
N/A
N/A
$4,758
Settled
Yes
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,660
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,974
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,895
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,345
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,111
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

84° to 85°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,693
N/A
N/A
$2,652
Settled
No
kalshi

86° to 87°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,280
N/A
N/A
$2,478
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,805
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

88° to 89°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$618
N/A
N/A
$604
Settled
No
kalshi

90° to 91°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$563
N/A
N/A
$529
Settled
No
kalshi

92° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$373
N/A
N/A
$373
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks about the highest temperature in Taipei on June 30, 2026. However, the source data reveals a critical mismatch: Kalshi's rules reference Minneapolis temperatures on June 28, 2026, while Polymarket references Taipei temperatures on June 30, 2026. These are fundamentally different events with different locations and dates.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic references Minneapolis on June 28, 2026, while the event group and Polymarket reference Taipei on June 30, 2026. This is a location and date mismatch that makes Kalshi's market fundamentally unresolvable as stated and creates irreconcilable divergence.Hero tip: Avoid trading Kalshi's market until the platform confirms whether the resolution criteria are a data entry error or if the market intentionally tracks Minneapolis weather. Polymarket's market is resolvable and internally consistent; traders should use Wunderground's historical data for Taipei Songshan Airport as the single source of truth.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All six conditions reference Minneapolis maximum temperature on June 28, 2026, according to National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). Conditions cover ranges: <84°F, 84-85°F, 86-87°F, 88-89°F, 90-91°F, and >91°F, with all resolving to Yes. This does not match the event group title asking about Taipei on June 30.
  • Polymarket: Thirteen markets collectively cover all possible temperature outcomes for Taipei Songshan Airport on June 30, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius (29°C or below, 30°C through 39°C, and 39°C or higher). Resolution source is Wunderground historical data at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum temperature recorded at Minneapolis/St Paul, MN on June 28, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed through the NWS regional climate portal for the Minneapolis office. Temperature ranges are divided into six bands: 83°F or below, 84-85°F, 86-87°F, 88-89°F, 90-91°F, and 92°F or above. Each temperature band corresponds to a distinct market outcome. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official report should be used for resolution. While secondary sources like AccuWeather or Google Weather may provide guidance, only the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) serves as the authoritative source for determining the actual outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The Taipei temperature record market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking consensus on the highest temperature in Taipei on June 30. On Polymarket, the leading outcome reflects expectations around cooler conditions, while Kalshi prices reflect a contrasting view. This cross-platform dashboard lets you compare how different prediction communities assess the same weather event, revealing where market participants diverge on temperature thresholds and helping identify which platforms show stronger conviction on extreme heat scenarios.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money incentives for accuracy, often incorporating meteorological models, historical patterns, and seasonal trends faster than traditional forecasts update. Traders on this market are pricing in current atmospheric conditions, monsoon activity, and climate anomalies specific to late June in Taiwan. Unlike static analyst reports, market odds adjust continuously as new weather data emerges. Comparing this market's odds to official meteorological agency forecasts can reveal whether traders expect conditions to deviate from baseline expectations or align with consensus models.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this event differently due to variations in user base composition, liquidity depth, and how each platform frames temperature thresholds. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Regional trader concentration, dormancy in one venue versus another, and differences in how Celsius and Fahrenheit conversions are interpreted can all widen spreads. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and settlement mechanics may attract different risk appetites, causing one to show higher conviction on cooler outcomes while the other reflects greater uncertainty or bullish heat expectations.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical cyclone activity, or monsoon intensity changes in Southeast Asia could significantly reprrice this market. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies, anomalous atmospheric pressure systems, or sudden warming trends in the Western Pacific may trigger sharp moves. Real-time weather model updates released days before June 30 often catalyze trader repositioning. Additionally, historical temperature records for Taipei in late June and any El Niño or La Niña developments could influence how traders assess the probability of extreme heat on that specific date.