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Highest temperature in Taipei on July 4?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Taipei on July 4?

Volume:
$88,697

36°C

 - Polymarket

36°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

36°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,815
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,485
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,906
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,313
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,247
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,099
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Taipei temperature record market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether the highest temperature in Taipei will reach 35°C on July 4. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume, allowing traders to monitor how sentiment shifts as the event date approaches. This live data helps participants assess consensus expectations around peak heat conditions in the city on that specific day.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader conviction and often incorporate meteorological forecasts, historical temperature patterns, and seasonal climate data. Unlike traditional analyst predictions, this market aggregates dispersed information through price discovery—traders who accurately forecast Taipei's July 4 high temperature profit, creating incentives for accuracy. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals, prediction markets distill those inputs into a single probability that updates continuously as new information emerges.

On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing "yes" or "no" outcomes, with prices ranging from 0 to 100 cents per share. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market price reflects the collective assessment of whether the highest temperature will hit 35°C, with each trade adjusting the odds based on supply and demand. Traders profit by correctly predicting the outcome, and the market price serves as a real-time probability estimate that evolves until resolution.

This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Taipei on July 4 is verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the official daily maximum temperature to the 35°C threshold specified in the market. Traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout once the event is confirmed and the market settles.

Weather forecasts and seasonal climate updates are primary drivers of price movement in this market. Tropical storm systems, monsoon patterns, or heat waves affecting East Asia could shift expectations significantly. Real-time meteorological alerts, historical temperature comparisons from prior July 4 records, and atmospheric pressure data all influence trader positioning. As the event date approaches, intraday weather models become increasingly precise, typically causing sharper price adjustments in the final days before resolution.