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Highest temperature in Taipei on July 3?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Taipei on July 3?

Volume:
$115,161

36°C

 - Polymarket

36°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

36°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,495
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,439
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,354
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,141
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,799
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,267
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Taipei temperature record market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether the highest temperature in Taipei will reach 38°C on July 3. The interface displays the current probability estimate, historical price movements, and liquidity depth so traders can monitor how market sentiment evolves as the event date approaches. This dashboard provides a transparent view of how participants are pricing the likelihood of this specific temperature threshold being met in Taiwan's capital city.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide and often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because markets incorporate diverse information sources and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. While meteorologists publish deterministic forecasts based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who profit only if their temperature prediction proves correct. Comparing the current odds to official weather bureau statements for Taipei can reveal where traders see opportunities or risks that conventional forecasts may underweight.

On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing "yes" or "no" outcomes, with the share price reflecting the probability of the highest temperature reaching 38°C. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts continuously as new information arrives and traders adjust their positions, creating a dynamic odds display that updates in real time. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to breaking weather developments or model updates.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once July 3 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Taipei becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual peak temperature on that date against the 38°C threshold specified in the market. Traders holding winning shares receive their payout once the result is confirmed and the market is officially settled.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, or tropical storm activity could significantly move odds in this market. Real-time atmospheric data releases, changes in sea surface temperatures, or unexpected monsoon behavior may prompt traders to reassess the probability of extreme heat on July 3. Additionally, historical temperature records for that date and recent heat waves in the region often influence trading decisions as participants weigh climatological context against current model guidance.