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Highest temperature in Taipei on July 2?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Taipei on July 2?

Volume:
$152,499

35°C

 - Polymarket

35°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

35°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15,539
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

90° to 91°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,842
N/A
N/A
$5,580
Settled
Yes
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,285
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

40°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,601
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

92° to 93°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,363
N/A
N/A
$5,141
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

88° to 89°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,666
N/A
N/A
$6,720
Settled
No
polymarket

38°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,603
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

94° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,182
N/A
N/A
$4,444
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,437
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,684
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

85° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$968
N/A
N/A
$783
Settled
No
kalshi

86° to 87°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$674
N/A
N/A
$673
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks for the highest temperature recorded in Taipei on July 2, 2026. Kalshi's market references Philadelphia International Airport on June 30, 2026, while Polymarket correctly references Taipei Songshan Airport on July 2, 2026. The markets are fundamentally misaligned in geography and date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution criteria reference Philadelphia International Airport on June 30, 2026, while Polymarket references Taipei Songshan Airport on July 2, 2026. These are different geographic locations and different dates, making the markets fundamentally incompatible and unresolvable as a unified group.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket as the authoritative market for this event group, as it correctly specifies Taipei on July 2. Kalshi's market contains a critical data integrity failure and should not be used for settlement. Request clarification or cancellation of the Kalshi market immediately.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Six binary conditions all reference Philadelphia International Airport temperature on June 30, 2026 via National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). All conditions resolve to Yes across the full temperature range (less than 86°, 86-87°, 88-89°, 90-91°, 92-93°, greater than 93°), meaning the market is logically tautological and unresolvable. Additionally, location and date do not match the event group title.
  • Polymarket: Thirteen markets resolve to the temperature range containing the highest temperature at Taipei Songshan Airport on July 2, 2026 in whole degrees Celsius via Wunderground historical data. Ranges include: 30°C or below, 31°C, 32°C, 33°C, 34°C, 35°C, 36°C, 37°C, 38°C, 39°C, and 40°C or higher. This correctly matches the event group title.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded at Philadelphia International Airport on June 30, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is categorized into six ranges: 85°F or below, 86–87°F, 88–89°F, 90–91°F, 92–93°F, and 94°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome that resolves to Yes if the recorded temperature falls within that range. The official and final temperature value comes exclusively from the NWS Climatological Report (Daily); preliminary NWS data, AccuWeather, Google Weather, and other sources are not authoritative. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may involve rounding and conversion nuances that could affect interpretation of borderline values.

Frequently asked questions

The Taipei July temperature market aggregates trader positions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking consensus on the highest temperature in Taipei on July 2. Traders on both platforms are pricing the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds being reached that day. The dashboard displays real-time odds, trading volume, and price divergence between platforms, giving you a cross-venue view of how the market collectively assesses weather conditions. This multi-platform approach reveals whether consensus is building or if significant disagreement exists between trading communities on the expected peak temperature.

Prediction market prices reflect aggregated trader beliefs rather than formal meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data, market participants incorporate those forecasts plus their own conviction, risk appetite, and real-time information flow. Markets often price in tail risks or consensus shifts faster than traditional forecasts update. Comparing this market's odds to official weather service predictions for Taipei on July 2 can reveal whether traders are more bullish or bearish on extreme heat than experts expect, highlighting where market sentiment diverges from institutional guidance.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Market depth, regional trader concentration, and platform-specific incentives also influence how quickly new information is priced in. One venue may attract more weather-focused traders while the other draws general speculators, leading to different risk premiums. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but friction costs and settlement timing differences mean gaps can persist, especially on niche events like specific daily temperatures.

Updated weather forecasts from meteorological agencies are the primary catalyst; any shift in model consensus toward hotter or cooler conditions will reprrice odds immediately. Seasonal climate patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and tropical weather activity in the Western Pacific can all influence Taipei's July 2 high. Real-time satellite imagery and early-morning temperature trends in the days leading up to July 2 often trigger sharp repricing as traders refine their edge. Major weather events or anomalies reported in regional news may also shift trader positioning if they suggest unusual heat or cooling patterns ahead.