Highest temperature in Singapore on June 25?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader positioning and risk appetite alongside expert models. While meteorologists publish deterministic or probabilistic temperature ranges based on atmospheric science, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders betting real capital on the outcome. Comparing the current odds to published forecasts from Singapore's Meteorological Service or regional weather agencies can reveal whether traders are pricing in tail risks, model uncertainty, or recent data shifts that analysts may not yet have fully reflected. This divergence itself is valuable signal.

This market resolves around Jun 25, 2026, once June 25 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Singapore that day is confirmed. The outcome is determined by verifying the actual temperature against credible public sources, such as official meteorological records or established weather databases. Once the data is finalized and verified, the market settles automatically, and traders' positions are credited or debited based on whether their chosen outcome matched the realized temperature. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, or tropical system developments could significantly move odds in this market. Real-time atmospheric data releases, changes in sea surface temperatures, or monsoon intensity updates may prompt traders to reassess their positions. Historical temperature records for late June in Singapore, combined with current climate anomalies, also influence pricing. Additionally, any revision to regional weather models or unexpected atmospheric events—such as volcanic aerosol effects or sudden pressure systems—could trigger rapid repricing. Traders monitor meteorological bulletins and satellite imagery closely leading up to the resolution date.