Highest temperature in Singapore on July 13?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and crowdsourced expectations rather than model-based predictions alone. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric data and historical patterns, traders in this market incorporate broader information—including recent climate trends, seasonal anomalies, and consensus from the prediction community. Comparing the odds here to published forecasts from meteorological agencies can reveal where the crowd expects conditions to deviate from standard models, offering a complementary perspective on the likely outcome.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader positions into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome is represented as a contract, and the price of each reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As new trades flow in, the odds adjust dynamically, ensuring the market continuously reprices based on fresh information and shifting sentiment about the temperature threshold.

This market resolves around Jul 13, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Singapore on July 13 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual recorded high against the threshold specified in the market contract. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the close of the trading day, after official temperature data has been published and confirmed by meteorological authorities.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before resolution. Updated weather forecasts from major meteorological agencies—especially those predicting unusual heat or cooler conditions—often trigger repricing. Seasonal climate anomalies, El Niño or La Niña patterns, and recent temperature records in the region can all influence trader expectations. Additionally, real-time weather developments in the days leading up to July 13, such as unexpected atmospheric systems or heat waves, will likely drive significant trading activity and price movement as the event date draws near.