TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 29, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the highest temperature recorded in Shenzhen will reach 34°C on May 29, 2026. On Polymarket, the 34°C outcome is trading at 39.5%, while the 33°C outcome is at 27.5%. Resolution will be determined by historical temperature data from Weather Underground, using measurements from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station. Watch the actual weather conditions as May 29, 2026 approaches, as seasonal patterns and any regional weather systems will directly determine which temperature range the city experiences that day.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations for Shenzhen's May 29 high temperature, often incorporating meteorological models and seasonal patterns that professional weather analysts also consider. Markets typically price in historical May temperature ranges for Shenzhen, which average around 28–32°C, alongside any anomalies signaled by current atmospheric conditions. Unlike static analyst forecasts, market odds adjust dynamically as new weather data emerges. Comparing prediction market probabilities to published forecasts from meteorological agencies can reveal whether traders are pricing in more bullish or bearish temperature scenarios than official predictions suggest.
Several factors could shift odds for Shenzhen's May 29 high temperature. Seasonal weather patterns, including monsoon activity and atmospheric pressure systems over southern China, directly influence daily highs. Updated meteorological forecasts released in the days leading up to May 29 will be closely watched by traders, as improved model confidence typically triggers repricing. Urban heat island effects and local pollution levels can amplify or suppress peak temperatures. Additionally, any unusual climate anomalies—such as early heat waves or unexpected cold fronts—reported by weather services will prompt rapid market adjustments. Real-time forecast updates and historical temperature comparisons will guide trader positioning through resolution.