TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 29?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 29?

Volume:
$157,575

34°C

 - Polymarket

34°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 30, 2026

Closed: May 29, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

34°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$17,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

33°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,222
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,447
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C or higher

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,602
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,356
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$837
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$423
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C or below

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$225
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the highest temperature recorded in Shenzhen will reach 34°C on May 29, 2026. On Polymarket, the 34°C outcome is trading at 39.5%, while the 33°C outcome is at 27.5%. Resolution will be determined by historical temperature data from Weather Underground, using measurements from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station. Watch the actual weather conditions as May 29, 2026 approaches, as seasonal patterns and any regional weather systems will directly determine which temperature range the city experiences that day.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature prediction in Shenzhen on May 29 on Polymarket. It displays current implied probabilities for temperature outcomes, 24-hour trading volume of $24,284, and cumulative group volume of $157,568. Users can monitor price movements, historical odds trends, and market depth to understand how traders are positioning around this weather event. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, providing a live snapshot of market sentiment on Shenzhen's peak temperature that day.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations for Shenzhen's May 29 high temperature, often incorporating meteorological models and seasonal patterns that professional weather analysts also consider. Markets typically price in historical May temperature ranges for Shenzhen, which average around 28–32°C, alongside any anomalies signaled by current atmospheric conditions. Unlike static analyst forecasts, market odds adjust dynamically as new weather data emerges. Comparing prediction market probabilities to published forecasts from meteorological agencies can reveal whether traders are pricing in more bullish or bearish temperature scenarios than official predictions suggest.

Several factors could shift odds for Shenzhen's May 29 high temperature. Seasonal weather patterns, including monsoon activity and atmospheric pressure systems over southern China, directly influence daily highs. Updated meteorological forecasts released in the days leading up to May 29 will be closely watched by traders, as improved model confidence typically triggers repricing. Urban heat island effects and local pollution levels can amplify or suppress peak temperatures. Additionally, any unusual climate anomalies—such as early heat waves or unexpected cold fronts—reported by weather services will prompt rapid market adjustments. Real-time forecast updates and historical temperature comparisons will guide trader positioning through resolution.