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Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 1?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 1?

Volume:
$95,742

33°C

 - Polymarket

33°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

33°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,110
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,693
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,988
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,023
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,820
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,440
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Shenzhen July temperature market displays real-time odds and trading activity on Polymarket, where participants wager on the highest temperature recorded in Shenzhen on July 1st. You can monitor current prices, 24-hour volume of $64,311, and historical price movements to understand how the market is pricing different temperature outcomes. The interface shows the leading outcome and its implied probability, helping traders assess consensus expectations around peak heat conditions for that specific date in Shenzhen.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have financial incentive to predict accurately. Comparing the implied probability here against published forecasts from meteorological services can reveal where traders expect conditions to differ from baseline expectations, offering insight into tail risks or consensus blind spots around July 1st temperatures in Shenzhen.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, once July 1st has passed and the highest temperature in Shenzhen can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources reporting the actual peak temperature recorded that day. Traders holding shares in the correct temperature bracket will receive their payout based on the final verified reading. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time, allowing quick settlement once the data is publicly available and confirmed.

Weather forecasts updated closer to July 1st will likely shift odds as meteorological confidence improves. Seasonal climate patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and any unusual weather phenomena reported in the region could trigger repricing. Historical temperature records for Shenzhen in early July provide a baseline, but anomalies—such as unexpected heat waves or cooling systems—may surprise traders. Real-time updates from weather services and early July conditions in nearby regions can also influence market sentiment as the resolution date approaches.