Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 29?

Prediction market odds on Polymarket represent crowdsourced expectations from active traders and reflect real-money incentives to forecast accurately. Analyst forecasts from meteorological agencies and weather services typically rely on atmospheric models and historical climate data. Markets often incorporate analyst predictions but may diverge based on trader sentiment, recent weather patterns, or breaking news. Comparing Polymarket odds to official Shanghai weather forecasts closer to May 29 can reveal whether the market is pricing in more bullish or bearish temperature scenarios than traditional forecasters.

The market resolves on May 29, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual highest temperature recorded in Shanghai on May 29. Official meteorological data sources are used to verify the final outcome and settle all positions. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The exact resolution criteria and data source are specified in the market rules on Polymarket to ensure transparency and fairness.

Major weather systems, seasonal patterns, and climate anomalies can shift odds significantly. A strong cold front or unexpected monsoon activity could lower temperature expectations, while heat waves or high-pressure systems could raise them. Updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies typically move the market as they become available. Broader climate events, such as El Niño or La Niña patterns, may also influence Shanghai's May weather outlook. As May 29 approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable and often trigger sharp repricing on Polymarket.