Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 3?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Shanghai on June 3 is priced through outcome shares corresponding to specific temperature ranges or thresholds. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in which temperature bracket will occur, with prices reflecting the collective probability assigned by the market. The price of each outcome share moves based on supply and demand, allowing traders to enter or exit positions as new information emerges closer to the June 3 resolution date.

The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, after the highest temperature in Shanghai on June 3 has been recorded and finalized. The outcome is determined by the official maximum temperature reading for that day, typically sourced from Shanghai's meteorological authority or recognized weather station data. Once the final temperature is confirmed, the market settles to the corresponding outcome, and traders' positions are paid out according to which temperature range or threshold they backed.

Weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated meteorological forecasts can significantly move market odds for Shanghai's June 3 temperature. Major weather systems such as typhoons, heat waves, or cold fronts approaching East Asia in late May or early June would trigger repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for early June in Shanghai and real-time atmospheric data releases may influence trader expectations. As June 3 approaches, official weather bureau forecasts become more precise, often causing sharp adjustments in market pricing.