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Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?

Volume:
$271,802

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 29, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$35,797
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,517
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,964
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,374
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,313
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,495
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,635
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,424
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Shanghai temperature market tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in Shanghai on June 29. On Polymarket, this dashboard displays the current probability estimate, historical price movements, and cumulative trading volume as participants buy and sell shares tied to specific temperature thresholds. The interface lets you monitor how market sentiment shifts as new weather data emerges, giving you a live window into collective expectations for that day's peak heat in the city.

Prediction market odds reflect decentralized trader consensus and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather agencies issue deterministic point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the financial incentives of thousands of participants betting on whether the highest temperature will be 23°C or below. Markets tend to incorporate late-breaking data and real-time uncertainty more dynamically than static analyst reports, though both sources can inform your view of the likely outcome.

This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once June 29 has passed and the day's highest temperature in Shanghai can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources reporting the actual peak temperature recorded that day. If the verified high is 23°C or below, the corresponding outcome wins; otherwise, the alternative prevails. Resolution typically occurs within hours or a day after the event, once data is finalized and published.

Several factors could shift odds significantly before Jun 29, 2026. Updated seasonal forecasts, atmospheric pressure systems, or official meteorological alerts about heat waves or cool fronts would likely trigger trading activity. Real-time weather model updates in the days leading up to June 29 often cause sharp repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for that date and time-of-year patterns influence trader conviction. Any major climate or weather news affecting East Asia could also prompt market participants to reassess their positions.