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Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 25?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 25?

Volume:
$136,470

25°C

 - Polymarket

25°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,755
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,308
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,582
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$978
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Shanghai temperature market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in Shanghai on June 25. Traders here are pricing in their collective expectations about whether the day's peak will hit specific thresholds. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price movements, and volume metrics, giving you a live snapshot of market sentiment. With total volume of $136,470 and 24-hour activity at $88,173, this market reflects active participation from traders monitoring weather forecasts and seasonal patterns for the region.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader positioning and risk appetite alongside expert models. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric data and historical patterns, this market aggregates dispersed information from participants who have financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the odds here to published forecasts from meteorological agencies can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic scenarios. The gap between the two reflects market uncertainty and the premium traders assign to tail risks or consensus blind spots.

This market resolves around Jun 25, 2026, once June 25 has passed and the day's highest temperature in Shanghai can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting of weather data for that date. Traders who correctly predicted the temperature range will receive payouts proportional to their position size, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution hinges on the actual recorded high, making real-world weather observation the final arbiter.

Several factors could shift odds before Jun 25, 2026. Updated seasonal forecasts, climate anomalies, or shifts in atmospheric patterns reported by meteorological agencies often trigger repricing. Major weather systems—monsoons, heat waves, or cold fronts—announced in advance can cause sharp moves. Real-time weather alerts and model updates in the days leading up to June 25 will likely drive trading volume and price swings. Additionally, trader sentiment and positioning changes as the date approaches can amplify or dampen volatility in this market.