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Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 18?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 18?

Volume:
$148,716

28°C

 - Polymarket

28°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 18, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

28°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$25,855
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,470
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,759
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,056
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,895
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,578
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,040
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,938
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,746
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Shanghai temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for contracts tied to the highest temperature recorded in Shanghai on June 18. The interface displays current market prices, 24-hour trading volume, and the distribution of trader positions across outcome ranges. This allows participants to monitor how market sentiment shifts as the event date approaches and new weather forecasts emerge. The dashboard provides a transparent view of aggregate trader conviction about temperature thresholds.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader positioning and risk appetite alongside expert models. While weather analysts issue point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric data, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders who have financial incentive to price outcomes accurately. Comparing the implied probabilities here to published forecasts from Shanghai's meteorological bureau or international weather services can reveal where the market is pricing in tail risks or consensus blind spots that analysts may underweight.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that converts buy and sell orders into real-time odds for each temperature outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contract price directly reflects the probability traders assign to the highest temperature falling within a given range. As new weather data, seasonal patterns, or atmospheric models become available, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information.

This market resolves around Jun 18, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Shanghai on that date becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by official meteorological records, typically published by China's national weather service or Shanghai's local meteorological authority. Resolution occurs after the trading window closes and the final temperature reading is confirmed. Traders holding positions aligned with the verified outcome receive their payout.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical cyclone activity, or unexpected heat waves in East Asia could significantly move prices in this market. Updated seasonal forecasts, changes in atmospheric pressure systems, or anomalous ocean temperatures may prompt traders to reassess probabilities. Real-time weather alerts and model consensus updates from meteorological agencies often trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for Shanghai on June 18 and broader climate trends can influence how traders calibrate their expectations as the event date draws nearer.