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Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 14?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 14?

Volume:
$180,731

22°C

 - Polymarket

22°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

22°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$55,187
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,911
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,162
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,831
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,013
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,158
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,485
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,830
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Shanghai temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in Shanghai on June 14. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume, allowing traders to monitor how the market reprices as new weather data and forecasts emerge. This live data helps participants gauge consensus expectations around whether temperatures will reach specific thresholds on that date.

Prediction markets and traditional weather forecasts operate differently. While meteorologists issue point estimates and confidence ranges based on atmospheric modeling, this market aggregates trader beliefs into probabilistic odds. Comparing the two reveals whether professional forecasters and market participants align on temperature expectations. Divergences often signal either new information traders have priced in or areas where expert models and crowd wisdom differ—both valuable signals for understanding forecast uncertainty around Shanghai's weather on June 14.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares that represent different temperature outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract trades between 0 and 1, with the price reflecting the collective probability assigned by the market. As new weather data, seasonal patterns, or forecasts become available, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The current market price directly represents what traders believe is the likelihood of that specific temperature outcome occurring on June 14.

This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, once June 14 has passed and the highest temperature in Shanghai for that day can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources that record the actual peak temperature. Traders holding shares in the outcome that matches the verified temperature receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. Resolution depends entirely on the factual temperature reading recorded on the specified date.

Several factors could shift odds in this market before June 14. Updated seasonal forecasts, changes in atmospheric patterns, or unusual weather systems developing in the region may prompt traders to reprice. Major weather events or anomalies reported in the days leading up to June 14 could trigger significant trading activity. Additionally, historical temperature records and climate data releases may influence how traders assess the likelihood of specific thresholds being reached, causing price swings as new information becomes available.