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Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Seoul on July 1?

Volume:
$220,264

30°C

 - Polymarket

30°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

30°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$41,280
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,362
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,102
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,345
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,436
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,494
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,096
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Seoul July 1 temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds, historical price movements, and trading activity for this prediction market. The platform displays the current probability estimate alongside 24-hour volume data, showing how much capital traders have committed to the outcome. This market has attracted meaningful participation, with total volume of $220,264 and recent 24-hour activity of $187,779. The dashboard lets you monitor how trader sentiment evolves as the event date approaches, providing transparency into the collective forecast.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money commitments from traders and often incorporate diverse information sources, including meteorological models and historical climate data. Analyst forecasts typically rely on established weather prediction systems and seasonal patterns. This market allows you to compare the crowd's probabilistic view against traditional forecasting methods. Traders pricing this market must weigh current atmospheric conditions, seasonal norms for Seoul in early July, and any unusual weather patterns. The live odds serve as a continuous benchmark for how confident the market is relative to conventional expert opinion.

This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Seoul on July 1 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual peak temperature observed that day, measured against the specified threshold. Resolution occurs after the event date passes and official weather data becomes available. Traders holding positions will see their outcomes settled based on the confirmed temperature reading.

Several factors could shift odds before the market resolves. Updated seasonal weather forecasts and long-range models from meteorological agencies may influence trader expectations. Unusual atmospheric patterns, monsoon activity, or heat waves affecting East Asia could trigger significant repricing. Real-time weather alerts and official forecasts released closer to July 1 typically drive the most dramatic moves. Additionally, historical temperature comparisons and any climate anomalies reported in the weeks leading up to the event may prompt traders to adjust their positions.