Highest temperature in Seattle on Jun 20, 2026?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they aggregate real-time trader expectations rather than relying on a single meteorological model. While National Weather Service forecasts and climate analysts publish point estimates or confidence intervals months in advance, this market allows participants to continuously update their views as new data arrives. The odds here reflect distributed knowledge across many traders with varying expertise, which can sometimes outperform static analyst predictions—though both sources offer valuable signals for understanding likely temperature outcomes.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades at a price between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the implied probability that the highest temperature will fall within that range. As traders submit bids and asks, the market price adjusts to balance supply and demand, ensuring the odds remain responsive to new information and shifting expectations about Seattle's weather on the settlement date.

This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once June 20, 2026 has passed and the day's highest temperature in Seattle can be verified. The outcome is determined by the actual peak temperature recorded on that date, confirmed against credible public weather data sources. Traders holding shares in the outcome range that matches the verified temperature receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automatic once the temperature reading is finalized and published.

Several factors could shift odds in this market over the coming months. Major climate pattern changes—such as shifts in jet stream positioning, El Niño or La Niña conditions, or unusual high-pressure systems—often trigger significant repricing. Seasonal forecasts from NOAA or other meteorological agencies may influence trader positioning. Additionally, historical temperature records for Seattle in mid-June, long-range ensemble model updates, and real-time atmospheric data closer to the event date will all contribute to price movement. Traders continuously incorporate new climate science and observational data to refine their bets.