Highest temperature in Seattle on July 12?

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader bets into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—such as the temperature landing in a specific band—has its own contract, and the price of each reflects the cumulative positions of all traders. When you buy a contract, you're wagering that outcome will occur; if it does, you receive the full payout. The market price continuously adjusts as traders buy and sell, ensuring that odds stay aligned with current sentiment. Higher prices indicate stronger trader conviction that an outcome will materialize.

This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Seattle on July 12 is finalized and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual peak temperature against the specific ranges defined in each contract. Once the event passes and official data is available, the market settles automatically, paying out holders of the correct outcome and closing positions on incorrect ones. Traders should monitor weather reporting and official records as the date approaches to assess their positions.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before Jul 12, 2026. Updated long-range weather forecasts from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing as new model runs become available. Seasonal climate anomalies, such as heat waves or cooler-than-normal patterns, can sway trader expectations. Media coverage of extreme weather elsewhere may influence risk sentiment. Historical temperature records for Seattle in July also serve as anchors for comparison. As the date draws closer, short-range forecasts become more reliable and typically narrow the range of plausible outcomes, which can consolidate odds around a tighter band. Real-time trading activity itself—large bets from informed participants—can also move prices significantly.