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Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 31?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 31?

Volume:
$45,434

22°C

 - Polymarket

22°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 31, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

22°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,678
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,966
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,740
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,598
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,878
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,058
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$889
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-time consensus from traders betting on Sao Paulo's May 31 high temperature, while meteorological forecasts from weather services like INMET or the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology provide scientific models based on atmospheric data. Market prices often incorporate broader uncertainty and longer-term climate patterns, whereas traditional forecasts focus on deterministic modeling. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more bullish or bearish temperature scenarios than official weather predictions suggest for late May in Sao Paulo.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 31 has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from recognized meteorological sources monitoring Sao Paulo's weather on that date. The outcome is binary: either the temperature threshold specified in the market is met, or it is not. Once the data is confirmed and reported, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on their positions.

Temperature expectations for Sao Paulo on May 31 could shift based on seasonal climate forecasts, El Niño or La Niña patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and historical May weather trends in the region. Major weather alerts, tropical storm activity, or unusual heat waves in South America may influence trader sentiment. As May approaches, updated meteorological models and real-time atmospheric data will refine market prices. Additionally, any significant climate or weather news affecting Brazil's interior regions could impact expectations for Sao Paulo's specific temperature outcome.