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Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 27?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 27?

Volume:
$124,318

68° to 69°

 - Kalshi

68° to 69° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 4:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

68° to 69°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$18,481
N/A
N/A
$9,906
Settled
Yes
polymarket

66-67°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

70° to 71°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,312
N/A
N/A
$11,344
Settled
No
kalshi

64° to 65°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,397
N/A
N/A
$17,262
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,467
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

66° to 67°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,829
N/A
N/A
$6,583
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,830
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

72° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,632
N/A
N/A
$3,051
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,284
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,044
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

58-59°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,969
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

63° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,462
N/A
N/A
$2,237
Settled
No
polymarket

62-63°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

56-57°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,428
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-61°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$875
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in San Francisco on June 27, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are offering binary or range-based markets on this outcome, using official weather data as the resolution source. The core question is unified, but the platforms differ in their date reference and resolution mechanics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution rules are logically contradictory (all temperature ranges resolve to Yes), making markets unresolvable. Additionally, Kalshi references June 26, 2026, while Polymarket references June 27, 2026. The two platforms also use different data sources (NWS vs. Wunderground).Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group. The resolution logic is fundamentally broken. Focus on Polymarket, which has mutually exclusive, resolvable outcomes. Confirm the correct date (June 26 vs. June 27) before placing any trades.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All six temperature ranges (less than 64°F, 64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F, 70-71°F, greater than 71°F) are coded to resolve to Yes. This is logically impossible—only one actual temperature can occur. References June 26, 2026. Source: National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily).
  • Polymarket: Offers 13 mutually exclusive temperature range buckets for June 27, 2026 (58-59°F, 60-61°F, 62-63°F, 64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F, 70-71°F, 72-73°F, 74°F or higher, 55°F or below, 56-57°F). Exactly one resolves to Yes based on the highest temperature recorded at KSFO. Source: Wunderground historical data, whole degrees Fahrenheit precision.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco Airport on June 26, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed through the NWS San Francisco office website by navigating to the Observed Weather tab and selecting San Francisco Airport with Daily Climate Report. Traders should use the latest version of the data available for the specified date. While preliminary NWS data and other weather sources like AccuWeather or Google Weather may provide guidance, the final resolution value is determined exclusively by the NWS Climatological Report (Daily). Preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, so traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary data.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, historical patterns, and peer positioning into their bets. While the National Weather Service publishes point estimates and confidence intervals, market prices reflect the collective judgment of participants risking money on outcomes. This market's odds may lead or lag official forecasts depending on new satellite imagery, model updates, or shifts in trader sentiment. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is more or less bullish on heat than institutional meteorologists.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated climate models, or unexpected atmospheric blocking systems can trigger sharp repricing in this market. Heat waves developing over the Pacific or changes in the jet stream position are key catalysts. Real-time satellite imagery and short-range forecast updates in the 72 hours before June 27 typically drive the largest moves. Seasonal climate anomalies, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and even local urban heat effects reported in media coverage can shift trader conviction and liquidity toward hotter or cooler outcomes.