Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jun 21, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional meteorologist forecasts because they incorporate broader information—including historical climate trends, long-range models, and market participants' collective expectations. While meteorologists typically issue deterministic point forecasts or narrow ranges, this market aggregates probabilistic views across many participants with financial skin in the game. Comparing the implied odds here to published seasonal outlooks or climate normals can reveal whether traders expect an unusually hot or cool day relative to expert consensus. The market price often updates faster than formal forecasts when new data arrives.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome has a bid-ask spread, and the midpoint reflects the current market consensus on the likelihood of that temperature occurring. As new information emerges—updated weather models, seasonal patterns, or real-time conditions—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery, so you can see exactly what other participants are willing to pay or accept for each outcome.

This market resolves around Jun 22, 2026, once June 21, 2026 has passed and the highest temperature for that day in San Francisco is verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources that record official weather data for the city. Traders who correctly predicted the temperature range will receive their winnings based on the final verified reading. Until that date, prices will fluctuate as traders reassess probabilities based on updated forecasts and seasonal conditions.

Several factors could shift odds in this market: updated long-range weather models and seasonal forecasts, El Niño or La Niña conditions affecting Pacific temperatures, historical heat waves or cool spells in late June, and real-time atmospheric patterns as the date approaches. Major climate or weather news—such as unusual ocean temperatures or jet stream positioning—often triggers repricing. As June 2026 draws closer, short-range forecasts become more reliable and typically cause sharper price moves. Traders also monitor broader climate indices and local San Francisco microclimates that influence daily highs.