Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 6?

Prediction market odds reflect the collective judgment of traders with real money at stake, while traditional analyst forecasts come from meteorologists using physics-based models. This market aggregates dispersed information and incentivizes accuracy through financial reward, often capturing nuances that single-source forecasts may miss. Comparing the odds here to published weather forecasts from the National Weather Service or other meteorological agencies can reveal where traders expect conditions to diverge from model consensus. When significant gaps emerge, it may signal either market inefficiency or information the broader forecast community has not yet incorporated.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares in outcome contracts, with the price of each share reflecting the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a specific temperature range—for example, whether the high will fall between 70–71°F—and the market price moves as new information arrives and trader sentiment shifts. Shares that traders believe are underpriced attract buyers, pushing the price up, while overpriced shares see selling pressure. This continuous price discovery mechanism ensures the market reflects the most current collective forecast available on the platform.

This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in San Francisco on July 6 is confirmed and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual recorded high temperature against the specific range or threshold defined in each contract. Once the event has occurred and the data is finalized, the market settles automatically, with winning shares paid out in full and losing shares expiring worthless. Traders should monitor official weather reporting as the date approaches to track how conditions align with market expectations.

Updated weather forecasts from meteorological agencies are the primary driver of price movement in this market. Major pattern shifts—such as an unexpected heat wave, marine layer persistence, or upper-level atmospheric changes—can cause sharp repricing as traders adjust their bids. Real-time observations in the days leading up to July 6, including sea-surface temperatures and high-altitude wind patterns, will also influence odds. Additionally, historical temperature records and seasonal climate anomalies may prompt traders to reassess tail-risk outcomes. As the event date nears, intraday weather updates and model consensus changes will likely trigger the most volatile trading activity.