Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 10?

Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from many traders with real money at stake, often producing forecasts that rival or outperform traditional meteorological models. While weather agencies issue deterministic point forecasts and confidence intervals, this market distills trader expectations into a probability distribution across temperature ranges. The two approaches complement each other: meteorologists provide physics-based modeling, while markets reflect how traders weigh uncertainty and tail risks. Comparing the leading outcome's odds to published forecasts can reveal where consensus diverges.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares in each temperature outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the market's implied probability that the high temperature will fall within that range. As new weather data arrives or forecasts shift, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The outcome with the highest current price represents the market's most likely scenario, while lower-priced outcomes reflect tail risks or less consensus views.

This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in San Francisco on that day is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources reporting the official daily high. Traders who backed the correct temperature range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution window closes shortly after the market end date, allowing time for final data confirmation before payouts are distributed.

Updated weather forecasts from the National Weather Service or other meteorological agencies are the primary driver of price movement. Major pattern shifts—such as an unexpected marine layer, heat dome, or cold front—can significantly alter trader expectations. Real-time temperature readings in the days leading up to July 10 will also influence positions, as will any unusual atmospheric conditions reported in the Bay Area. Breaking news about air quality events or unusual weather phenomena may prompt rapid repricing as traders reassess tail risks.