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Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 1?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 1?

Volume:
$241,429

72° to 73°

 - Kalshi

72° to 73° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 4:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

72° to 73°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$63,147
N/A
N/A
$48,463
Settled
Yes
polymarket

70-71°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,967
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

74° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,271
N/A
N/A
$16,745
Settled
No
kalshi

66° to 67°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,600
N/A
N/A
$24,683
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,344
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

70° to 71°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,183
N/A
N/A
$8,164
Settled
No
kalshi

68° to 69°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,103
N/A
N/A
$8,189
Settled
No
kalshi

65° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,486
N/A
N/A
$7,961
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,373
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

57°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,900
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

62-63°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

60-61°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,573
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

58-59°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,546
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in San Francisco on July 1, 2026. Both Kalshi and Polymarket are offering binary or range-based contracts that resolve based on the actual maximum temperature recorded on that date. The core question is identical across platforms, but the resolution mechanics and data sources differ significantly.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi specifies Jun 30, 2026 while Polymarket specifies Jul 1, 2026—a one-day offset that makes the underlying event fundamentally different. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution criteria contain logical gaps for temperature ranges 67-68°F and 71-72°F, creating potential unresolvability. The two platforms also use different data sources (NWS vs Wunderground), introducing source fragility.Hero tip: This divergence is critical and makes cross-platform arbitrage extremely risky. Before trading, confirm with both platforms whether the date mismatch is intentional or an error. For Kalshi, explicitly ask how markets resolve if the actual temperature falls into the undefined ranges (67-68°F or 71-72°F). Verify that both NWS and Wunderground report the same high temperature for their respective dates, as historical discrepancies between sources are common.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on maximum temperature for Jun 30, 2026 per National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). All six binary outcomes resolve to Yes, but only cover: <66°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F, 70-71°F, 72-73°F, >73°F. Ranges 67-68°F and 71-72°F are undefined and will cause resolution failure if actual temperature falls there. Key quote: 'If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jun 30, 2026, is [range] according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves on highest temperature on Jul 1, 2026 at San Francisco International Airport Station via Wunderground, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Covers all ranges from 57°F or below through 76°F or higher with no gaps. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco Airport on June 30, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed via the NWS San Francisco office website under the Observed Weather tab. Temperature ranges are: 65°F or below, 66-67°F, 68-69°F, 70-71°F, 72-73°F, and 74°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) serves as the authoritative source, superseding other weather services.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like those in this market reflect real-money stakes, incentivizing traders to align their bets with the most accurate available forecasts. Unlike traditional weather models or analyst opinions, market prices aggregate dispersed information and incorporate late-breaking data continuously. Traders often incorporate meteorological models, historical patterns, and recent atmospheric conditions into their positions. When market odds diverge significantly from official forecasts, it may signal either new information traders have priced in or temporary mispricing—both worth monitoring as resolution approaches.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric anomalies can significantly reprrice this market. Heat waves, high-pressure systems, or unexpected cloud cover in the days leading up to July 1 will shift trader expectations. Historical temperature records for that date and recent San Francisco climate trends also influence positioning. Breaking news about El Niño, La Niña, or other climate oscillations may prompt rapid repricing. As the event date nears, short-term meteorological models become more reliable, typically tightening odds and reducing uncertainty in the final hours.