Highest temperature in San Antonio on Jun 13, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs about the high temperature, often diverging from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical patterns, this market incorporates real-time information and trader conviction through price discovery. Comparing the implied temperature from current odds against published forecasts from the National Weather Service or other meteorological sources can reveal where the market is pricing in additional uncertainty, confidence, or contrarian views about atmospheric conditions on that specific date.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome bracket has its own price, typically expressed as a probability between 0 and 100, reflecting the collective assessment of where the high will land. Wider temperature bands trade at higher prices because they encompass more possible outcomes, while narrow ranges command lower prices due to greater specificity and risk.

This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, after June 13, 2026 has concluded and the day's high temperature is finalized. The outcome is confirmed once the verified temperature reading is available from credible public sources, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement. Traders holding positions in the correct temperature bracket at resolution receive their payout, while incorrect predictions result in a loss of stake.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and updated atmospheric models will drive significant price movements in this market. Tropical systems, heat domes, or unexpected cold fronts approaching Texas in early June could trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for that date, long-range climate outlooks, and real-time model consensus updates will influence trader positioning. As the event date draws closer, short-term forecasts become more reliable, typically narrowing the range of plausible outcomes and concentrating trading volume around the most probable temperature bands.