Highest temperature in Paris on June 5?

On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Paris on June 5 is priced through outcome tokens representing specific temperature ranges or thresholds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell these tokens based on their conviction, with prices reflecting the implied probability of each outcome. The market uses an automated market maker or order-book mechanism to determine real-time odds. As traders accumulate positions and new information surfaces, prices adjust to balance supply and demand, ultimately converging toward the realized temperature on resolution day.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026, after the highest temperature in Paris on June 5, 2026, has been recorded and finalized. Resolution is determined by the official temperature data for that day, sourced from a designated meteorological authority or data provider specified in the market rules. Once the peak temperature is confirmed, the outcome token corresponding to the actual temperature range or threshold is deemed correct, and traders holding winning positions receive their payouts accordingly.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric anomalies can move odds significantly. A heat wave warning or unusual high-pressure system developing over Europe would increase odds of higher temperatures. Conversely, cooler-than-normal jet stream positioning or incoming rain systems could lower expectations. Real-time weather model updates released in the days before June 5 will be closely watched by traders. Climate indices, solar activity, and any unusual atmospheric events in late May or early June will also influence market pricing as traders refine their bets closer to resolution.