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Highest temperature in Paris on June 3?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Paris on June 3?

Volume:
$134,450

20°C

 - Polymarket

20°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 3, 2026

Closed: Jun 3, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$28,790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,231
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,893
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,347
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,936
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,230
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,981
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,272
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Paris temperatures, while meteorological forecasts from agencies like Météo-France rely on atmospheric modeling and historical data. Markets often incorporate broader information—including long-range climate patterns and seasonal trends—that may diverge from traditional weather models. Comparing market-implied probabilities to official forecasts can reveal whether traders are pricing in higher or lower temperatures than meteorologists expect for June 3 in Paris.

The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, after the highest temperature in Paris on June 3 has been recorded and verified. Resolution is determined by official temperature data for that date, ensuring an objective, auditable outcome. Once the actual high temperature is confirmed, the corresponding outcome contract settles to 1 and all other contracts settle to 0, distributing winnings to holders of the correct outcome.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems tracking toward Western Europe could significantly move odds. Heat waves or cold fronts developing weeks in advance often trigger repricing as meteorological models gain confidence. Real-time weather updates in late May and early June will drive the most volatile moves. Additionally, historical temperature anomalies for early June and any unusual solar or oceanic activity affecting European weather patterns may influence trader positioning as June 3 approaches.