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Highest temperature in Paris on June 11?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Paris on June 11?

Volume:
$98,478

19°C

 - Polymarket

19°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: Jun 11, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

19°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$18,299
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,031
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,928
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,095
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,761
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,815
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$787
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$505
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature recorded in Paris on June 11, 2026, on Polymarket. It displays the current probability implied by market prices, 24-hour trading volume of $77,352, and historical price movements so you can monitor how traders are pricing this weather outcome. The interface updates continuously as new trades occur, helping you spot shifts in market sentiment as the event date approaches.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide, often incorporating meteorological data faster than traditional forecasts update. Analyst predictions from weather services like Météo-France typically rely on deterministic models and historical climate data. Market prices may diverge from analyst consensus if traders believe official forecasts underestimate or overestimate June heat in Paris. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is pricing in factors analysts may have missed or discounted.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced through outcome shares that traders buy and sell to express their belief about the highest temperature. Each outcome contract represents a specific temperature range or threshold, and the market price of each share reflects the collective probability assigned by traders. As new weather data emerges or the June 11 date draws closer, prices adjust dynamically based on supply and demand for each temperature outcome.

The market resolves on Jun 11, 2026 after the highest temperature in Paris on June 11, 2026 has been recorded. Resolution depends on official temperature data from a designated weather authority or data provider specified in the market terms. Once the actual high temperature is confirmed, the outcome shares corresponding to the correct temperature range or threshold are paid out in full, while incorrect outcomes expire worthless.

Major weather pattern shifts, including changes to jet stream positioning or Atlantic pressure systems, can significantly alter temperature expectations for Paris in mid-June. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies may shift trader sentiment if they predict unusual heat or cooler conditions. Real-time weather data closer to June 11, such as observed temperatures in late May or early June, will anchor market prices more firmly. Heatwave alerts or climate anomalies affecting Western Europe could also trigger rapid repricing.