TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 2, 8:00 AM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Panama City's peak temperature on June 2, whereas traditional analyst forecasts come from meteorological models and expert analysis. Markets often incorporate broader information faster than static forecasts, though both sources have distinct strengths. Comparing market-implied probabilities to official weather service predictions and seasonal climate models can reveal where traders see divergence from conventional expectations for that date.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Panama City on June 2 is priced through a set of outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell shares in outcomes they believe will occur, with prices reflecting the collective probability assigned by the market. As new weather data, seasonal patterns, and climate signals emerge, prices adjust continuously, allowing participants to trade based on their conviction about how hot Panama City will be on that date.
Temperature expectations for Panama City on June 2 can shift based on seasonal weather pattern updates, tropical system forecasts, ocean temperature anomalies, and atmospheric pressure trends. Real-time meteorological model runs in the days leading up to June 2 will refine predictions significantly. Additionally, historical climate data for early June in Panama City and any unusual weather systems developing in the Caribbean region could influence trader positioning and market odds as the event date approaches.