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Highest temperature in Panama City on July 12?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Panama City on July 12?

Volume:
$22,606

31°C

 - Polymarket

31°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

31°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,728
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,914
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,791
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,595
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,866
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,597
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,497
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,311
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$959
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Panama City heat record market dashboard displays real-time odds, historical price movements, and 24-hour volume of $17,957 for this weather prediction contract. The dashboard tracks how traders are pricing the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds on July 12 in Panama City. You can monitor shifts in trader sentiment as new weather forecasts emerge, along with cumulative trading activity. This market aggregates all buy and sell orders into a single probability estimate, updated continuously as participants trade throughout the day.

Prediction market odds reflect real money at stake, creating incentives for traders to incorporate the latest meteorological data and forecasts. Unlike traditional weather analyst predictions, which rely on model consensus, this market prices in trader conviction and risk appetite. When major weather services issue updated forecasts for July 12, traders often adjust positions quickly, sometimes moving odds ahead of or diverging from published analyst ranges. Comparing the market's implied probability to official forecasts can reveal where traders see upside or downside risk that traditional models may underweight.

This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Panama City on July 12 becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing actual weather station data against the temperature thresholds defined in each contract outcome. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout once the event concludes and the result is confirmed. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time, pending data availability from official meteorological authorities.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated tropical storm forecasts, or revised climate models for the Caribbean region could significantly move odds. Real-time weather alerts, atmospheric pressure changes, or unexpected heat waves in Central America may trigger rapid trader repositioning. As July 12 approaches, actual daily temperatures in Panama City will influence expectations for the final high. Additionally, any revisions to historical temperature records or changes in measurement methodology could affect how traders price edge cases near critical thresholds.