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402,751

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2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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Highest temperature in NYC on June 27?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in NYC on June 27?

Volume:
$363,871

80° or below

 - Kalshi

80° or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 12:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

80° or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$94,113
N/A
N/A
$33,942
Settled
Yes
polymarket

78-79°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,374
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

81° to 82°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$65,318
N/A
N/A
$31,450
Settled
No
kalshi

83° to 84°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$51,413
N/A
N/A
$29,367
Settled
No
kalshi

85° to 86°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$28,984
N/A
N/A
$19,232
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,352
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,036
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

87° to 88°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,845
N/A
N/A
$10,540
Settled
No
polymarket

86°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82-83°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,933
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

89° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,120
N/A
N/A
$4,866
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,745
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,629
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

67°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$901
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in New York City on June 27, 2026. Kalshi's market references June 26, 2026 data from Central Park, while Polymarket references June 27, 2026 data from LaGuardia Airport. The two platforms use different dates, locations, and temperature measurement sources, creating fundamental resolution misalignment.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references June 26, 2026 at Central Park; Polymarket references June 27, 2026 at LaGuardia Airport. These are different dates and different weather stations. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution logic appears contradictory: all six temperature ranges (less than 81° through greater than 88°) resolve to Yes, which is logically impossible and suggests a market design failure.Hero tip: Avoid cross-platform arbitrage on this event group. The date and location mismatch makes these markets fundamentally non-comparable. Kalshi traders should seek clarification on whether the June 26 date is intentional or a typo. If Kalshi intended June 27, the entire market logic requires revision. Polymarket's structure is clearer but covers only LaGuardia; Central Park temperatures may differ significantly.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on June 26, 2026 (not June 27) using National Weather Service Climatological Report for Central Park. All six conditions (temperature ranges from <81° to >88°) resolve to Yes, creating a logical contradiction. Key Quote: 'If the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York for June 26, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), is [any range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves on June 27, 2026 using Wunderground historical data for LaGuardia Airport Station. Thirteen separate binary markets cover specific temperature ranges (67°F or below through 86°F or higher). Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on June 26, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is categorized into six bands: 80°F or below, 81–82°F, 83–84°F, 85–86°F, 87–88°F, and 89°F or above. Each band resolves to its corresponding outcome. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the sole authoritative source; preliminary NWS data and alternative weather services such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may differ due to rounding and measurement methodology variations and should not be used as final reference. Traders should exercise caution when interpreting preliminary NWS reporting.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because traders incorporate not just model data but also historical volatility, recent weather patterns, and their own risk assessments. While the National Weather Service publishes point forecasts, market participants price in uncertainty ranges and tail risks that analysts may downweight. Over time, this market's odds can serve as a check on consensus forecasts, especially when traders see asymmetric payoffs or model disagreement that public forecasters haven't fully communicated.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which naturally creates pricing gaps. Kalshi's regulatory framework and contract design may appeal to risk-averse participants, while Polymarket's broader outcome granularity can draw sophisticated bettors seeking precise temperature bands. Time-zone differences in when traders are active, plus varying order-book depth, mean the same underlying event can trade at different implied probabilities across venues until arbitrage pressure narrows the spread.

Major weather model updates, tropical system development, or sudden jet-stream shifts can trigger sharp repricing as traders reassess tail-risk scenarios. Heat domes, cold fronts, or unusual atmospheric blocking patterns in the days leading up to June 27 will shift odds materially. Real-time satellite imagery, upper-air forecasts, and even social media discussion of extreme weather can accelerate trading volume and volatility, especially if competing models diverge on whether the high will breach key thresholds like 85 or 90 degrees.