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399,592

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2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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61%

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Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Volume:
$344,555

83° to 84°

 - Kalshi

83° to 84° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 12:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

83° to 84°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$59,803
N/A
N/A
$32,930
Settled
Yes
polymarket

82-83°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,847
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

81° to 82°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$67,105
N/A
N/A
$43,846
Settled
No
kalshi

79° to 80°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29,925
N/A
N/A
$20,657
Settled
No
kalshi

85° to 86°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,826
N/A
N/A
$17,279
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,138
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,973
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

87° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,816
N/A
N/A
$13,846
Settled
No
polymarket

88-89°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,411
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,233
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,745
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,502
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

78° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,888
N/A
N/A
$7,562
Settled
No
polymarket

90-91°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

73°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,857
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

92°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks the highest temperature recorded in New York City on June 26, 2026. However, the two platforms use different measurement stations (Central Park vs. LaGuardia Airport), different data sources (NWS vs. Wunderground), and different reference dates (June 25 vs. June 26), creating significant resolution ambiguity.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi contains a logical contradiction where all six temperature conditions resolve to YES, making the market unresolvable. Additionally, Kalshi references June 25, 2026 while Polymarket references June 26, 2026, and they use different weather stations (Central Park vs. LaGuardia Airport) and data sources (NWS vs. Wunderground).Hero tip: Kalshi's market logic is fundamentally broken and should not be traded. Polymarket's market is resolvable but traders must understand it measures LaGuardia Airport temperatures on June 26, not Central Park on June 25. Clarify the intended event scope with platform operators before trading.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All six conditions (temperatures <79°, 79-80°, 81-82°, 83-84°, 85-86°, >86°) resolve to YES. This is logically impossible since temperature can only fall into one range. References Central Park station, NWS Climatological Report, and June 25, 2026.
  • Polymarket: Thirteen mutually exclusive temperature ranges for June 26, 2026 at LaGuardia Airport Station, resolved via Wunderground historical data to whole-degree Fahrenheit precision. Ranges span 73°F or below through 92°F or higher.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the highest temperature recorded in Central Park, New York on June 25, 2026, as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is divided into six distinct ranges: 78°F or below, 79–80°F, 81–82°F, 83–84°F, 85–86°F, and 87°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome that resolves to Yes if the recorded temperature falls within that range. The NWS Climatological Report (Daily) is the sole authoritative source for resolution; preliminary NWS data and alternative weather sources such as AccuWeather or Google Weather may differ due to rounding, conversion nuances, or measurement methodology variations and should not be used as the basis for trading decisions.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they price in real-time trader conviction rather than model-based probabilities alone. While meteorologists issue point forecasts and confidence intervals, traders here are putting capital at risk on specific temperature ranges, which can reflect local knowledge, recent data updates, or contrarian views. The odds you see reflect the marginal trader's willingness to buy or sell at that price, not a consensus average. Comparing this market's implied probabilities to your preferred weather service can reveal where traders see value or mispricing relative to official forecasts.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates its own order book and liquidity pool, so identical events can trade at different odds depending on who is active and how much capital is deployed on each side. Polymarket may attract traders focused on precise temperature bands, while Kalshi draws those betting on broader ranges. Fees, user base composition, and settlement rule nuances also influence pricing. These spreads typically narrow closer to resolution as arbitrageurs exploit gaps, but in the interim, comparing both venues can reveal which outcome the broader market favors most strongly.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated forecast models, and seasonal anomalies can all swing odds significantly. A sudden cold front or heat dome prediction would reshape trader positioning. Real-time atmospheric data, jet stream changes, and even urban heat island effects reported in the news may trigger repricing. Short-term catalysts include updated National Weather Service advisories and any extreme weather warnings for the region. As June 26 approaches, intraday temperature trends and overnight lows will also influence final market sentiment, especially in the hours just before resolution.