Highest temperature in NYC on Jun 21, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from thousands of traders and reflect collective expectations about the June 21 temperature outcome. Analyst forecasts, by contrast, typically come from meteorological models and seasonal climate reports issued weeks or months in advance. This market aggregates dispersed information—including recent weather patterns, long-range forecasts, and historical June data for New York—into a single price. When professional forecasters and market traders diverge significantly, it often signals either new data entering the market or structural differences in how each group weights uncertainty.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome range has its own contract, and the price of each reflects the implied probability that the high temperature will fall within that band. Traders profit by correctly predicting which range will occur, with payouts determined by the final verified temperature reading. Liquidity and spreads vary by outcome, with more heavily traded ranges typically showing tighter bid-ask gaps.

This market resolves around Jun 22, 2026, after June 21, 2026 has concluded. The outcome is determined by the highest temperature officially recorded in New York City on that date, verified against credible public sources. Once the event is confirmed and the final temperature is established, the market settles automatically and payouts are distributed to holders of the winning outcome range. Traders should monitor official weather reporting as the date approaches to assess their positions.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and historical climate anomalies can all influence trading in this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, unexpected heat waves, or changes in atmospheric circulation patterns may prompt traders to reprrice their expectations. Real-time weather alerts and extended forecasts issued in the weeks leading up to June 21 will likely drive volume spikes. Additionally, any significant climate or weather news affecting the Northeast region could shift market sentiment, as traders continuously incorporate new information into their bets.