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Highest temperature in Munich on June 30?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Munich on June 30?

Volume:
$161,048

28°C

 - Polymarket

28°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 30, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

28°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$26,621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,369
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,059
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,707
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,261
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,833
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,638
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Munich temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether the highest temperature in Munich will reach 30°C on June 30. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and participant volume, giving traders a live view of how the crowd is pricing this specific weather outcome. This dashboard lets you monitor sentiment shifts as new forecasts emerge or weather patterns develop in the days leading up to the event.

Prediction markets and traditional weather forecasts approach the same question differently. While meteorologists publish deterministic temperature ranges based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates trader beliefs into a single probability. Comparing the current odds here to official forecasts from weather services like the German Meteorological Institute can reveal whether traders are pricing in more or less confidence than the models suggest. Discrepancies often signal either new information traders have incorporated or genuine uncertainty that models downplay.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once June 30 has passed and the actual highest temperature in Munich can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources documenting the day's weather in Munich. Traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution hinges on whether the recorded high temperature matches the threshold specified in the market.

Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. Updated seasonal forecasts or climate pattern analyses from meteorological agencies may trigger repricing if they suggest higher or lower temperatures than currently expected. Major weather systems developing over Europe, shifts in the jet stream, or anomalous heat waves could all prompt traders to reassess their positions. Additionally, historical temperature records for Munich on June 30 and real-time atmospheric data releases will likely influence trading activity as the date approaches.