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Highest temperature in Munich on June 14?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Munich on June 14?

Volume:
$86,300

21°C

 - Polymarket

21°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 14, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

21°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,603
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,877
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,701
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,566
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,744
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,585
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$351
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Munich temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the highest temperature forecast in Munich on June 14. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature ranges, and the dashboard displays current market prices, 24-hour trading volume, and the probability implied by the leading outcome. This live data reflects collective trader sentiment about where the day's peak temperature will land, updated continuously as new information and bets flow in.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader positioning and risk appetite alongside meteorological models. While professional meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals, this market aggregates the distributed knowledge of traders who have financial incentives to forecast accurately. Comparing the implied probability here to consensus forecasts from national weather services can reveal where the crowd expects conditions to differ from baseline models, though both sources draw on similar underlying data.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on buy and sell volume for each temperature outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more capital flowing into a particular range, the higher its implied probability climbs. Each outcome contract trades independently, so the market price reflects the marginal trader's conviction about that specific temperature band. Liquidity and trading activity determine how quickly prices adjust to new weather data or model updates.

This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, once June 14 has passed and the day's highest temperature in Munich can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting from established weather monitoring sources. Traders holding shares in the outcome range that matches the verified high temperature receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. The resolution window typically closes within hours of the market end date once official data is published.

Major weather model updates, seasonal pattern shifts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can all shift trader positioning in this market. Unexpected heat waves, cold fronts, or changes to long-range forecasts may trigger sharp repricing. Local news coverage of extreme weather warnings, changes in solar activity forecasts, or anomalies in European pressure systems could also influence bets. As June 14 approaches, intraday weather radar and satellite imagery will likely drive final adjustments to the odds.