Highest temperature in Moscow on June 28?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, risk appetite, and information asymmetries. While weather analysts rely on physics-based models and historical data, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have financial incentive to be accurate. Comparing the implied probability from trading odds to the confidence intervals published by meteorological agencies can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk. Such gaps sometimes signal either market inefficiency or information the broader forecasting community has not yet fully priced in.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares that represent different temperature outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out based on whether the final temperature falls within a specified range. The market price reflects the collective willingness of buyers and sellers to transact at that level, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in that outcome. As new information arrives—updated weather models, seasonal patterns, or real-time atmospheric data—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to move continuously until the market closes near the resolution date.

This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Moscow on June 28 becomes verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the final temperature reading against the threshold specified in the market contract. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market close, pending confirmation from authoritative weather data providers.

Updated weather models and seasonal forecasts are the primary drivers of price movement in this market. Major atmospheric patterns—such as heat waves, cold fronts, or shifts in jet stream positioning—can trigger sharp repricing as traders update their expectations. Real-time temperature readings in the days leading up to June 28 will also influence odds, as actual conditions become clearer. Additionally, any unusual geophysical events or anomalies in regional climate data could shift the probability distribution, causing traders to reassess their positions and adjust market prices accordingly.