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Highest temperature in Moscow on June 15?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Moscow on June 15?

Volume:
$47,149

22°C

 - Polymarket

22°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

22°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,836
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,012
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,252
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,848
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,356
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,084
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$399
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Moscow temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for contracts tied to the highest temperature recorded in Moscow on June 15. The interface displays current pricing, historical price movements, and trading volume, allowing participants to monitor how market sentiment shifts as the event date approaches. This dashboard provides a transparent view of how traders are pricing the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds being reached on that date.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they reflect real-time trader sentiment rather than deterministic meteorological models. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric data, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have financial incentive to forecast accurately. Comparing the implied probability from market prices to published analyst predictions can reveal where traders see asymmetric risk or where consensus forecasts may be underweighting tail outcomes.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that converts contract odds into decimal or percentage form. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades independently, with the current price reflecting the marginal trader's assessment of that scenario's likelihood. As new information emerges or traders adjust their views, prices adjust continuously, and the spread between bid and ask prices reflects market liquidity and conviction around specific temperature thresholds.

This market resolves around Jun 15, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Moscow on June 15 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual peak temperature reading against the contract thresholds traders have been betting on. Resolution occurs after the event concludes and official data becomes available, at which point winning positions are settled and losing positions expire worthless.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and atmospheric anomalies can significantly move this market. Unexpected heat waves, changes in jet stream positioning, or revised climate indices may prompt traders to reassess temperature probabilities. Additionally, real-time weather alerts, satellite data releases, and updates from meteorological agencies in the days leading up to June 15 can trigger rapid repricing. Even geopolitical or industrial events affecting regional air quality or urban heat dynamics could influence final trading activity.