TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Highest temperature in Milan on May 29?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Milan on May 29?

Volume:
$42,960

29°C

 - Polymarket

29°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 30, 2026

Closed: May 29, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

29°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

30°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,480
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,820
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C or higher

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,754
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$137
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C or below

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Milan's highest temperature will reach 30°C on May 29, 2026. On Polymarket, the 30°C outcome is trading at 45.0%, while the 29°C outcome stands at 32.5%. Resolution will be determined by the highest temperature recorded at Milan's Malpensa International Airport Station according to Weather Underground historical data. Watch the weather patterns developing in late May 2026, as spring conditions in northern Italy will be critical to determining whether temperatures breach the 30°C threshold on that specific date.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in Milan on May 29 on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of the leading outcome, 24-hour volume of $22,477, and cumulative group volume of $42,929. Users can monitor price movements, historical odds trends, and liquidity depth to understand how the market is pricing different temperature scenarios as the event date approaches.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Milan's May 29 high temperature, whereas traditional analyst forecasts rely on meteorological models and historical data. Markets often incorporate breaking weather patterns and seasonal shifts faster than static forecasts. Comparing the market's implied probability to official weather service predictions and climate models can reveal whether traders expect conditions warmer, cooler, or in line with expert consensus for late May in Milan.

The market resolves on May 29, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual highest temperature recorded in Milan on May 29, typically verified against official meteorological data from recognized weather stations or national weather services. The specific outcome criteria—such as whether the temperature must match exactly 29°C or fall within a range—are defined in the market's terms at the time of creation.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can significantly move odds. Late-May Milan temperatures are influenced by Mediterranean high-pressure systems, Atlantic storm tracks, and North African heat advection. Real-time weather model updates, historical temperature comparisons for late May, and any unusual climate events in the weeks leading up to May 29 will drive trader sentiment and reshape probability estimates on the market.