Highest temperature in Miami on July 12?

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—such as whether the high will land between 88–89°F—has a share price between 0 and 100 cents, representing the implied probability. When traders buy shares of an outcome, its price rises; when they sell, it falls. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the market always reflects current sentiment. The spread between bid and ask prices tightens as volume increases, rewarding active participation. Traders profit by buying low and selling high, or by holding shares of outcomes they believe are underpriced relative to the true likelihood of Miami's peak temperature on July 12.

This market resolves around Jul 12, 2026, once July 12 has passed and the highest temperature recorded in Miami is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual peak temperature against the predefined ranges offered in the market. Traders who held shares of the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the event, once official temperature data is confirmed. The specificity of the temperature bands—such as 88–89°F—means the outcome is objective and not subject to interpretation, ensuring fair settlement for all participants.

Several factors can shift odds in this market before Jul 12, 2026. Updated weather models from the National Weather Service or other meteorological agencies often trigger repricing as traders adjust their forecasts. Unusual atmospheric patterns, tropical systems, or heat waves in the region can cause sharp moves. Real-time temperature readings in the days leading up to July 12 provide concrete data that traders incorporate immediately. Media coverage of extreme heat events or climate anomalies may influence sentiment. Late-breaking seasonal forecasts or anomalies in ocean temperatures can also sway the market. As the event date approaches, intraday temperature trends and overnight lows become increasingly relevant, allowing traders to refine their positions based on the most current conditions affecting Miami's expected high.