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Highest temperature in Miami on July 1?
kalshi
polymarket

Highest temperature in Miami on July 1?

Volume:
$299,440

93° to 94°

 - Kalshi

93° to 94° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 12:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

93° to 94°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$49,759
N/A
N/A
$28,423
Settled
Yes
polymarket

92-93°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,153
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

91° to 92°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$78,723
N/A
N/A
$66,905
Settled
No
kalshi

89° to 90°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$39,309
N/A
N/A
$38,859
Settled
No
kalshi

95° to 96°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$33,437
N/A
N/A
$17,265
Settled
No
kalshi

97° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,072
N/A
N/A
$16,416
Settled
No
polymarket

90-91°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

88° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,871
N/A
N/A
$11,871
Settled
No
polymarket

88-89°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

94-95°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

96-97°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,623
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

100-101°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

98-99°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,753
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

83°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,656
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

102°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$867
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the highest temperature will be in Miami on July 1, 2026, measured at Miami International Airport. Markets are segmented into temperature ranges (e.g., 88-89°F, 90-91°F, etc.) to allow traders to bet on specific outcomes. Resolution depends on official weather data from a single day.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms are resolving on different calendar dates (Polymarket: July 1, 2026; Kalshi: June 30, 2026). This is a fundamental date mismatch that makes cross-platform arbitrage impossible and creates the risk of trading the wrong day's weather entirely.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate event groups. Polymarket traders are betting on July 1 weather; Kalshi traders are betting on June 30 weather. Confirm your intended date before entering any position. If you want to trade July 1 specifically, use only Polymarket. If you want June 30, use only Kalshi.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves on July 1, 2026. Uses Wunderground historical weather data for Miami Intl Airport (KMIA). Temperature measured in whole degrees Fahrenheit. Markets cover ranges from 83°F or below through 102°F or higher. Resolution source: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Key Quote: 'the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26.'
  • Kalshi: Resolves on June 30, 2026 (one day earlier). Uses National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) for Miami International Airport. Temperature ranges cover less than 89°F through greater than 96°F. Key Quote: 'highest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport for June 30, 2026 as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily).'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the highest temperature recorded at Miami International Airport on June 30, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is categorized into six ranges: 88°F or below, 89–90°F, 91–92°F, 93–94°F, 95–96°F, and 97°F or above. Each range corresponds to a separate market outcome that resolves to Yes if the recorded temperature falls within that range. The official and final temperature value comes exclusively from the NWS Climatological Report (Daily); preliminary NWS data, AccuWeather, Google Weather, and other sources are not authoritative. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS reporting and measurement methods may involve rounding and conversion nuances that could affect interpretation of borderline values.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices represent crowdsourced probability estimates from thousands of traders with real money at stake, often differing meaningfully from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data, market odds incorporate trader expectations about forecast accuracy, media coverage, and late-breaking conditions. This market's pricing reflects traders' collective judgment about whether Miami will experience temperatures in the 88–94°F range on July 1. Comparing these odds to your preferred weather service can reveal where consensus leans bullish or bearish relative to official predictions, helping you spot potential mispricing.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Both platforms host identical temperature outcomes, yet their odds can diverge due to differences in user base composition, liquidity depth, and fee structures. Kalshi and Polymarket attract traders with varying risk appetites and information sources, so one platform may price a 90–91°F outcome higher than the other. Additionally, timing of large trades, platform-specific incentives, and regional trader concentration can create temporary spreads. Monitoring both venues helps you identify arbitrage opportunities and understand which forecast scenario each community finds more or less likely.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical storm activity, or updated long-range forecasts from the National Weather Service can trigger significant repricing in this market. Heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual atmospheric blocking patterns may cause traders to reassess the probability of extreme highs or cooler-than-normal conditions. Media coverage of unusual weather or climate anomalies can also shift sentiment. Additionally, as July 1 approaches, real-time radar updates and short-term model consensus typically narrow the range of plausible outcomes, causing odds to consolidate around the most likely temperature band.