Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 31?

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced as a set of outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature range or exact value. Traders buy and sell shares in each outcome, with prices ranging from 0 to 1 (or 0% to 100%), reflecting the market's implied probability. The price of each contract moves based on order flow and trader demand. Higher prices indicate stronger market belief in that outcome. Liquidity and trading volume on Polymarket determine how easily traders can enter or exit positions at any given time.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after the highest temperature for May 31 in Mexico City has been recorded. Resolution is determined by the official temperature reading from the designated meteorological authority or data source specified in the market's terms. The outcome is binary or multi-outcome depending on how the market is structured—either confirming a single highest temperature or determining which predefined range it falls within. Once the actual temperature is confirmed, the winning outcome is settled and traders receive payouts accordingly.

Major weather systems, seasonal patterns, and atmospheric conditions approaching May 31 will significantly influence market prices. Tropical storms, high-pressure systems, or unusual heat waves in the weeks before the event could shift trader expectations. Updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies may trigger repricing as new data becomes available. Urban heat island effects and local pollution levels can also impact daytime temperatures. As May 31 approaches, real-time weather models and short-term forecasts will become more reliable, potentially causing sharp market movements. Trader positioning and new information flow will drive continuous price adjustments.