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Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 10?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 10?

Volume:
$24,884

25°C

 - Polymarket

25°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,854
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,789
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,760
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,958
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,851
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,413
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$809
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$648
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Mexico City temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in Mexico City on July 10. The interface displays current market prices, historical price movements, and trading volume as participants buy and sell shares based on their expectations. This market reflects the collective prediction of traders who are pricing in their views on whether the day's peak temperature will reach specific thresholds, with odds updating continuously as new trades execute.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and financial incentives alongside meteorological models. While professional forecasters rely on atmospheric data and historical patterns, this market aggregates the distributed knowledge of participants who have money at stake. Comparing the implied probability from current odds to published forecasts from meteorological agencies can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk relative to expert consensus on July 10's conditions.

This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, once July 10 has passed and the day's highest temperature in Mexico City can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual peak temperature recorded on that date against the threshold specified in the market contract. Resolution relies on credible public reporting of weather data, ensuring that all traders have access to the same factual basis for settlement.

Several factors may shift odds in this market before Jul 10, 2026. Updated weather models and seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies can trigger repricing as new data becomes available. Unusual atmospheric patterns, climate anomalies, or historical temperature records for early July in Mexico City may also influence trader positioning. Additionally, any significant weather events or shifts in long-range forecasts could prompt traders to reassess their positions, causing volatility in the odds.