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Highest temperature in Manila on June 6?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Manila on June 6?

Volume:
$52,662

30°C

 - Polymarket

30°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 6, 2026

Closed: Jun 6, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

30°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,743
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

27°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,608
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,539
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,526
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,442
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,735
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,219
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,099
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature recorded in Manila on June 6, 2026, on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of each temperature outcome, 24-hour trading volume of $46,125, and historical price movements. Users can monitor how market participants are pricing different temperature ranges as the event date approaches, providing a live snapshot of crowd expectations for that specific day's peak heat in Manila.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and differ from traditional meteorological forecasts issued by weather agencies and climate analysts. While meteorologists rely on atmospheric models and historical data, prediction markets incorporate trader sentiment, recent weather patterns, and collective intelligence. Comparing Polymarket odds to official Philippine weather bureau forecasts or regional climate models can reveal whether markets are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than expert consensus.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the highest temperature in Manila on June 6 is priced as a set of outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell shares in outcomes they believe will occur, with prices reflecting the implied probability of each temperature bracket. The market price adjusts continuously based on order flow, allowing participants to lock in positions ahead of the resolution date and enabling real-time discovery of what the crowd expects Manila's peak temperature to be.

The market resolves on Jun 6, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official highest temperature recorded in Manila on June 6, 2026. The specific measurement source and methodology used to settle the market are defined in the event rules. Once the date passes and the final temperature data is confirmed, the outcome contract corresponding to the actual high temperature is marked correct, and traders holding winning shares receive their payout.

Several factors could shift market odds before June 6. Seasonal weather pattern updates, El Niño or La Niña developments, and long-range meteorological forecasts released closer to the date will influence trader positioning. Recent heat waves or cooler-than-normal periods in Southeast Asia may prompt repricing. Additionally, historical temperature records for Manila in early June and any emerging climate anomalies could trigger significant trading activity as new information becomes available and traders adjust their bets accordingly.