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Highest temperature in Manila on June 4?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Manila on June 4?

Volume:
$34,971

32°C

 - Polymarket

32°C - Polymarket

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 4, 2026

Closed: Jun 4, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

32°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,382
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,513
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,542
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,942
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$238
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$203
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader beliefs about Manila's highest temperature on June 4, often differing from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data, prediction markets incorporate real-time information, trader conviction, and financial incentives. Comparing the implied probabilities from Polymarket to official forecasts from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) can reveal whether markets are pricing in more or less extreme temperatures than expert predictions suggest.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Temperature outcomes on Polymarket are typically structured as binary or range-based contracts, with each outcome assigned a price between 0 and 1 reflecting its implied probability. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature brackets, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. As June 4 approaches, prices shift in response to updated weather models, seasonal patterns, and real-time atmospheric conditions affecting Manila's expected high temperature.

The market resolves on Jun 4, 2026, after the highest temperature in Manila on June 4 has been recorded. Resolution is determined by the official temperature reading for that date, typically sourced from meteorological authorities or designated weather stations in Manila. The outcome is binary or categorical depending on the contract structure, with the winning outcome paid out once the final temperature is confirmed and verified.

Several factors could shift market odds before June 4. Updated weather forecasts from PAGASA or international meteorological models indicating stronger heat or cooler conditions will drive trading. Seasonal climate patterns, El Niño or La Niña effects, and historical temperature records for early June in Manila inform trader expectations. Real-time atmospheric pressure systems, monsoon activity, and tropical weather developments closer to the date will trigger repricing. Additionally, any unusual weather events or climate anomalies reported in the weeks leading up to June 4 may influence market sentiment and implied probabilities.