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Highest temperature in Manila on June 27?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Manila on June 27?

Volume:
$43,545

31°C

 - Polymarket

31°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 27, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

31°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,628
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,881
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,926
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,554
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,521
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,194
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$842
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$796
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Manila temperature prediction market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the highest temperature expected in Manila on June 27. Traders use this interface to monitor current market sentiment, view 24-hour trading volume of $31,800, and analyze cumulative liquidity across all outcome ranges. The dashboard displays how market participants are pricing different temperature thresholds, offering a dynamic snapshot of collective forecasting activity as the event date approaches.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical climate data, this market incorporates real-time information, trader conviction, and economic incentives to be accurate. Comparing the implied probabilities here to published forecasts from national weather services can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk or where expert models may be underweighting certain temperature ranges. Both approaches offer complementary perspectives on the likely outcome.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling shares corresponding to different temperature outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays out based on whether the final temperature falls within its specified range, and the current market price reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. Liquidity and trading volume determine how easily participants can enter or exit positions, with tighter spreads indicating higher confidence and deeper order books.

This market resolves around Jun 27, 2026, once the highest temperature recorded in Manila on June 27 is verified and confirmed. The outcome is determined by comparing the final temperature reading against the predefined outcome ranges offered in the market. Resolution occurs after the event date passes and credible public reporting confirms the actual high temperature, allowing the platform to settle all positions accordingly.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical storm activity, or updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies could significantly move prices in this market. Real-time atmospheric data, satellite imagery showing cloud cover changes, and historical temperature anomalies for late June in Manila all serve as leading indicators. As the event date draws closer, actual daily high temperatures in the days preceding June 27 may also influence trader positioning, as they provide concrete reference points for expected conditions and reduce forecast uncertainty.