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Highest temperature in Manila on June 25?
polymarket

Highest temperature in Manila on June 25?

Volume:
$66,908

32°C

 - Polymarket

32°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 8:00 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

32°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,397
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,705
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,877
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

33°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,247
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

34°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

36°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,789
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,457
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$990
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Manila temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the highest temperature forecast in Manila on June 25. The interface displays current market prices, 24-hour trading volume of $43,551, and historical price movements. Traders use this data to monitor consensus expectations around whether the peak temperature will hit specific thresholds. Total liquidity across this market stands at $66,905, reflecting sustained interest in tropical weather outcomes.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and uncertainty pricing. While weather analysts rely on atmospheric models and historical data, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants betting on the actual outcome. Comparing the implied probability here to official forecasts from agencies like PAGASA can reveal where the crowd sees additional risk or confidence. Such gaps frequently highlight factors—like urban heat effects or recent climate patterns—that traditional models may weight differently.

This market resolves around Jun 25, 2026, once June 25 has passed and the day's weather data is finalized. The outcome is confirmed by comparing actual recorded temperatures against the specified thresholds, verified against credible public sources. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time, allowing rapid settlement.

Major weather pattern shifts—such as tropical storms, monsoon intensity changes, or heat waves—could significantly alter odds in this market. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing as new data becomes available. Urban development or air quality events in Manila may also influence local temperature readings. Additionally, as the date approaches, real-time weather models become more precise, typically narrowing uncertainty and sharpening trader positioning. Breaking news about atmospheric conditions or climate anomalies can spark rapid trading volume spikes.